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· The Age
South African motorists face a devastating October as petrol and diesel prices surge toward new all‑time highs, piling fresh pain onto households already battered by a shrinking economy and global conflict.
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South Africans, especially motorists, are already battling several fuel price increases in a difficult economic climate that has put a strain on households as families try to make ends meet.
Economy
South Africa’s economy has also taken a step backwards, with gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026, a setback that could be felt far beyond the country’s economic figures.
The decline comes largely against the backdrop of the outbreak of war in the Middle East, which has disrupted global trade, pushed up energy costs and added pressure to an already fragile economy.
For South Africans already battling rising living costs, the latest GDP decline could make it even harder to stretch their incomes.
Bad news
With the Latest figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) showing recoveries deep in the red, motorists have no sign of relief.
Petrol is already under‑recovering by R1.81 (93 octane) and R1.93 (95 octane) per litre. Diesel is worse, with deficits of R1.73 (0.05% sulphur) and R2.03 (0.005% sulphur).
If current conditions hold, petrol could rocket to R28.85 per litre, eclipsing the June 2026 record of R28.06 set during the Iran War shock.
Diesel is heading for its own disaster. With wholesale prices at R30.05 per litre, October could push levels to R32.08 per litre – smashing the May 2026 peak of R31.88.
Forecast
If these projections hold, motorists could pay the following in October 2026:- Petrol 93: increase of R1.81 per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of R1.93 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R1.73 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R2.03 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of R2.08 per litre
Global conflict
Before the twin wars in Iran and Ukraine, the highest diesel price ever recorded was R25.53 in July 2022.
Global conflict remains the fuel behind this crisis. The Iran War and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continue to choke energy markets, driving volatility and punishing South African consumers.
The looming hikes will not only squeeze households but also hammer businesses reliant on transport and logistics, raising the spectre of knock‑on inflation across the economy.
Oil price
Brent oil approached $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia said operations at several energy facilities in the kingdom’s south were halted by attacks.
The global benchmark was less than $1 away from triple figures after rallying last week on a flare-up in Middle East hostilities and a pick-up in buying by China, the world’s largest importer.