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In three years, the College Football Playoff has increased from four teams to 12 and to 24 for 2027. The reason was always money; any other explanation is pure garbage.
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By selling out to ESPN, college football has almost completely diluted the value of its regular season. In fact, the pressure to expand the playoffs has almost been eliminated for the top blue-blood schools. There's no longer any incentive for those universities to schedule nonconference games against quality opponents. In the Southeastern Conference and Big Ten, just get through the season with three losses or fewer and you can punch your ticket. In fact, if you're Notre Dame, a school that everyone wants to play and sets its own schedule, you're the master of your own fate. Play it coy, eliminate the USCs, BYUs and, of course, Michigan and you're guaranteed a berth in the future format. Based on that expectation, the Irish have officially clinched a CFP spot as of 2027 and beyond.
The networks will continue to hype regular-season games involving highly ranked teams but the reality is, it won’t matter who wins or loses because they’re just playing for seeding. There will still be huge crowds and audiences but the significance of the regular season will be reduced beyond repair. The reason professional sports regular seasons are important is because only a percentage of those teams make the playoffs. If we’re being truly honest and disregarding the non-Power Four schools who do not compete at the same level, there are probably fewer than 40 prominent committed programs that compete for a national championship every year. This is not March Madness. The disparity that exists in football is far greater than that in basketball. There will never be a Cinderella, only glorified games that are uncompetitive.
That's what's lost on the parties negotiating this deal. They think more is beneficial. The reality is that, at some point, more is hurtful and unrewarding. They just can't see beyond that green trees full of money. The disparity between the bottom 15 and the top 15 of those 40 schools in terms of resources is huge. It must be said again — the rich get richer.
Maryland cans Locksley
The first Power Four firing occurred this week when Maryland axed coach Mike Locksley, who was 2-5 this year. The Terrapins had lost their fifth in a row (to Rutgers, 37-30) with a combined score in the five games of 219-98. While the program had three winning seasons in his eight years, Locksley had the Terps going backward and showing no improvement. Even at a school such as Maryland, where there are low expectations, the inability to even compete will result in your firing. Is Rutgers’ Greg Schiano next.
Backups get their chance
UCLA (6-0) is ranked No. 9 in the country because the Bruins are undefeated. They are being rewarded even though their best victory was over Oregon, a team with no productive quarterback that looks lost at times. They play a weak schedule with only USC ranked so they could have CFP considerations. But the loss of starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava for the season will be difficult to overcome. Not so with the Ohio State Buckeyes, who lost their QB Julian Sayin for the year as well but have elite talent in five-star quarterback Tavien St. Clair, with Luke Fahey waiting in the wings. Can you say Cardale Jones? He was the Buckeyes' third-string quarterback in 2014, but late in the year moved up the depth chart to starter because of injuries and led the Buckeyes to the national championship. Déjà vu.
What are the pollsters watching?
The primary reason we have polls every week is to promote college football. It provokes reactions, interest and conversations about the credibility of a team's ranking. Of course, we all know no poll really matters except the CFP poll, which comes out in a few weeks. That poll lost a lot of clout last year when the committee ranked Notre Dame ahead of Miami each week until the last one, even though each team had two losses and the Hurricanes beat the Irish in a head-to-head matchup.
Both teams easily won their last regular-season games and suddenly, Miami jumped the Irish, something that should have happened from the beginning. By making this dramatic change in its final rankings and thus shutting the Irish out and putting the Hurricanes in the CFP at No. 11, the CFP Committee lost all credibility.
This week, the respected Associated Press poll ranked No. 19 Texas ahead of No. 20 Florida even though the Gators had just defeated the Longhorns on their home field, 27-24, and both have two losses. Yeah, that makes sense. Notwithstanding that, the AP poll is the one printed and followed by most major publications in the country, which begs the question — what are these voters watching?
My Top 25 predictions
No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1) +4 at No. 19 Texas (4-2): We told you here about our lack of confidence with Longhorn quarterback Arch Manning even after Texas defeated Ohio State in Week 2. When everyone else was talking about him being a Heisman Trophy favorite, we saw an imperfect and hesitant decision maker. Now everybody jumped on our bandwagon as Manning played poorly, especially late against Florida. His backup is redshirt freshman KJ Lacey Jr. and expect him to play with Texas' season on the brink. His counterpart at Mississippi, Trinidad Chambliss, is the best player in college football. Ole Miss also has Kewan Lacy, perhaps the most talented running back in the country. So even though Texas has a first-rate defense, Chambliss will find the end zone. The Rebels' defense is suspect and the Longhorns need to control the ball to win. In the end, Chambliss is too good and the Texas offense is too disorganized. Rebels hook them Horns.
No. 14 Houston (6-1) at No. 10 Utah (6-0) -6: It’s the Big 12 Game of the Week. The Cougars are pretenders and the Utes haven’t defeated a team with a winning record and are a combined 14-24. This is the kind of game in which both teams are only ranked because of their records and not because of their “body of work.” Time will tell but right now we’ll abstain from picking this game.
On X: @theschreib
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: 24-team playoff will ruin college football’s regular season
